The global gold industry expects gold to remain firmly above US$5,000 an ounce over the next year, according to delegates at the London Bullion Market Association’s annual conference in Sorrento, Italy.
Delegates are forecasting that gold will reach an average level of approximately US$5,013 per troy ounce over the next 12 months, compared with around US$4,170 at the time of the poll.
That represents a potential increase of approximately 20% from current levels.
For a market that has already experienced an extraordinary multi-year rally, the forecast is significant. It also suggests that the world’s professional bullion industry does not believe the gold bull market is over, despite higher interest rates, elevated bond yields and geopolitical uncertainty.
$5,013 Gold Would Not Be a Minor Move
A move from US$4,170 to US$5,013 would add approximately US$843 per ounce to the price of gold.
For someone holding one kilogram of physical gold, the equivalent increase would be roughly US$27,100 per kilogram, before considering currency movements and premiums.
For Australian investors, the impact would also depend on the Australian dollar. A weaker Australian dollar against the US dollar could produce an even larger increase in the Australian dollar price of physical gold.
This is one of the reasons Australian gold investors should not look exclusively at the US dollar gold price.
The Industry Has Already Been Forced to Raise Its Expectations
Perhaps more interesting than the US$5,013 forecast is how the forecast compares with last year’s expectations.
At the previous LBMA conference, delegates predicted that gold would be around US$4,980 by the time the industry gathered again in 2026.
Gold is now trading at roughly US$4,170, meaning the market has not reached that forecasted level.
Yet despite the forecast missing its target, delegates have once again put a price above US$5,000 on gold for the coming year.
That suggests the underlying belief in gold’s long-term strength remains intact.
The gold market has already demonstrated just how quickly forecasts can become outdated.
Gold surged approximately 64% in 2025, its strongest annual performance since 1979, and reached a record high of approximately US$5,595 an ounce in January.
The current price therefore represents a substantial correction from the January peak, but not necessarily a breakdown in the longer-term bull market.
Higher Rates Have Not Broken Gold
One of the most important developments in the current gold market is that the traditional relationship between interest rates and gold has become increasingly complicated.
Higher interest rates and higher bond yields normally create a significant headwind for gold because investors can obtain a higher yield from interest-bearing assets.
Yet gold has remained at historically elevated levels despite those pressures.
The market is also dealing with geopolitical instability and concerns about government debt, inflation, currency stability and the future direction of monetary policy.
These factors can create demand for gold precisely because investors are looking for assets that are not dependent on the financial strength of a particular government, bank or company.
Silver Forecast Is Even More Aggressive
The LBMA delegates are even more bullish on silver.
Silver is currently around US$61 an ounce, but the conference poll forecasts a price of approximately US$97 an ounce over the next 12 months.
That represents a potential gain of almost 59%.
Silver has already experienced extraordinary volatility. After rising approximately 147% in 2025, the metal has fallen around 14% so far this year.
The forecast therefore highlights one of the fundamental differences between gold and silver.
Gold is primarily treated as a monetary and reserve asset, while silver combines monetary characteristics with substantial industrial demand.
Silver can therefore experience much larger percentage moves in both directions.
For physical investors, this volatility can create opportunities, but it also reinforces the importance of understanding the difference between owning bullion and simply speculating on short-term price movements.
Platinum and Palladium Also Expected to Recover
The LBMA poll also points to stronger prices for the platinum-group metals.
Platinum is forecast to rise from approximately US$1,706 to US$1,914 an ounce, representing a potential increase of around 12%.
Palladium is forecast to rise from approximately US$1,174 to US$1,415, an increase of roughly 21%.
Both metals have suffered significant declines this year, with platinum down approximately 17% and palladium down approximately 28%.
The forecasts suggest that delegates believe some of the recent weakness may ultimately prove excessive.
The Bigger Question: How Much Physical Gold Do You Own?
Price forecasts are interesting, but they should not be the only consideration for a long-term physical bullion investor.
The more important question is whether an investor owns an appropriate amount of physical precious metals in the first place.
Nobody knows whether gold will actually reach US$5,013 over the next 12 months.
It could go considerably higher.
It could also fall substantially before eventually recovering.
Gold does not move in a straight line, and the history of the market shows that even powerful bull markets experience corrections.
The purpose of owning physical gold is therefore not necessarily to predict the exact price tomorrow, next month or next year.
It is to own an asset outside the traditional financial system that can help preserve purchasing power through periods of monetary, economic and geopolitical uncertainty.
Physical Gold Is a Long-Term Strategy
There is an important distinction between owning physical gold and simply taking a position on the gold price.
A futures contract, CFD or other financial instrument can provide exposure to the gold price, but it does not give the investor direct ownership of a bar or coin.
With physical bullion, the investor owns the metal itself.
That is particularly relevant when the reason for owning gold is not simply speculation, but wealth preservation.
The current environment contains many of the conditions that have historically encouraged investors and central banks to maintain exposure to gold: high government debt, fiscal deficits, geopolitical instability, currency concerns and uncertainty surrounding monetary policy.
The LBMA forecast reinforces the idea that the professional bullion industry continues to see these forces as important drivers of the precious-metals market.
Don’t Focus Only on the Price
A US$5,013 gold price may sound extraordinary today.
But it is worth remembering how quickly perceptions of a “high” gold price can change.
Gold prices that appeared impossible only a few years ago have already been surpassed.
The same is true of silver. A move towards US$97 would have appeared extremely ambitious after the metal spent years trading at substantially lower levels.
Markets do not move because a price looks expensive.
They move because the balance between supply, demand, money, liquidity, confidence and risk changes.
For FirstGold clients, the lesson is simple: gold and silver are not bought to get rich overnight. They are bought to help stay wealthy over time.
Cost averaging allows investors to accumulate physical bullion gradually rather than trying to guess the perfect entry point.
Whether gold reaches US$5,013, US$6,000 or temporarily falls back towards lower levels, the underlying principle remains the same.
Build wealth one gram at a time.
Disclaimer: This article is for general information only and is not financial advice. Precious metals prices can rise and fall, and past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
