Despite already impressive gains year-to-date, gold is in the early stages of a powerful secular bull market that could see prices rise to $4,500 and silver break $100, according to Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT, MFTA, and author of Gold & Silver: The Greatest Bull Market Has Begun.
“The breakout in March 2024 from a 13-year cup-and-handle pattern is a major technical confirmation,” Roy-Byrne told Kitco News. “And now we’re seeing macro alignment” with rising Treasury yields, a secular bear market in bonds, and a breakdown in credit quality.
Moody’s stripped the U.S. of its last remaining AAA rating last week, while JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that today’s credit market is a “bad risk,” citing inflation, stagflation, and geopolitical shocks as being grossly underestimated by investors.
According to Roy-Byrne, similar macro and technical conditions preceded past gold bull markets in 1930, 1972, and 2002. He noted that gold has already broken out against the S&P 500 and the 60/40 portfolio, while the inflation-adjusted gold price just broke out of a 45-year base.
He sees $3,700 by year-end as realistic and notes, “The average of past major breakouts points to $4,400–$4,500 within 12 months.”
Silver remains the laggard, but Roy-Byrne sees $35 and $37 as key breakout levels. “Once silver clears $50, it could surge to $100 within 12 to 15 months,” he said, citing a 45-year base in the metal.
Roy-Byrne also sees opportunity in gold miners, which he believes are undervalued and under-owned. “We’re in a sweet spot – fundamentally, miners are making money, but valuations are still low,” he said. “This setup could see miners significantly outperform the metal.”
He cautions investors to be disciplined: “Focus more on the companies than the macro noise. Have an exit plan. And don’t be afraid to take some profits along the way.”
Source: Kitco
