Gold prices are on the rise again, with live Australian dollar gold now trading at $5,210.44 per ounce, as fresh global trade tensions and renewed expectations of US interest rate cuts fuel investor demand for safe-haven assets.
After a slight pullback on Wednesday, the gold market regained its footing during Thursday’s Asian session. Investors appear increasingly convinced that the US Federal Reserve will resume cutting rates in September — a move that historically strengthens gold, given the metal’s non-yielding nature.
Global Trade Fears Rekindle Safe-Haven Buying
Geopolitical risk resurfaced after former US President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports, citing India’s ongoing purchases of Russian oil. That brings total tariffs to 50%. Further reports indicate that Trump could slap an extra 15% tariff on all Japanese imports, adding to the growing unease over a potential global trade war.
Earlier in the week, Trump also flagged incoming tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceutical goods, reviving broader market concerns over trade-driven economic slowdowns. These developments are boosting the appeal of gold among investors seeking stability.
Fed Rate Cut Bets Keep Building
Meanwhile, recent US economic data has strengthened the case for rate cuts. Disappointing Nonfarm Payrolls last Friday and a soft ISM Services PMI on Tuesday have fuelled speculation the US Fed will act sooner rather than later.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, there is now a 90% probability of a rate cut in September, with markets pricing in at least two 25-basis-point cuts before year-end. While the US dollar has managed only a mild recovery from a one-week low, gold remains firmly supported in this environment.
Traders Watching US Data and FOMC Speeches
Attention now turns to the release of US weekly jobless claims and speeches from key members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). These events could impact short-term moves in the US dollar and indirectly influence the gold price in the coming days.
Technical Outlook: Gold Bulls Target Break Above $5,220
From a technical perspective, gold has been hovering just below the key $5,220 AUD resistance zone. While the price has struggled to gain clear momentum above this level, recent strength — including a bounce from the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart — indicates bullish undercurrents remain intact.
A clean break above $5,220 could trigger the next leg higher, with price targets around $5,240–$5,260, and potentially $5,300, coming back into view. A sustained move above that could see gold retest its record highs in Australian dollar terms.
Downside Levels to Watch
In the event of a pullback, initial support lies near $5,180, followed by the 200-period SMA. A decisive drop below this could prompt further technical selling, with downside targets at $5,140, and then the $5,100 psychological level. Breaching that would expose deeper support around $5,060, marking a recent swing low.
With trade tensions escalating and rate cut expectations firming, gold remains well-positioned as a safe-haven asset. For Australian investors, the live gold price of $5,210.44 reflects both global uncertainty and domestic currency dynamics. A breakout above key resistance could signal further upside ahead.
