Gold prices remain steady as the latest U.S. consumer confidence data shows a slight decline, reinforcing the precious metal’s role as a safe-haven asset in uncertain times.
The Conference Board reported Tuesday that the Consumer Confidence Index fell to 97.4 in August, down from July’s revised 98.7. While the dip was modest, it reflects ongoing concerns about the economic outlook.
“Consumer confidence dipped slightly in August but remained at a level similar to those of the past three months,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist at The Conference Board.
Gold Holds Gains Near $3,370
Despite mixed sentiment, gold continues to hold strong, with spot prices last trading at $3,370.90 an ounce, up 0.18% on the day and consolidating below the key resistance level of $3,400.
Some analysts caution that a resilient confidence reading could limit safe-haven demand in the short term. However, deeper analysis of the report shows cracks forming in both current and future outlooks:
Present Situation Index fell by 1.6 points to 131.2.
Expectations Index dropped to 74.8, well below the threshold of 80 that often signals recession risk.
Consumer perception of job availability weakened for the eighth straight month.
This suggests that while sentiment hasn’t collapsed, underlying pressures in the labour market and economic outlook remain a concern—supporting the case for gold.
UBS: Gold to Reach $3,700 by Mid-2026
Looking further ahead, investment bank UBS remains bullish on gold, forecasting a climb to $3,600 by March 2026 and $3,700 by mid-2026.
UBS cites several macro drivers:
Fragile U.S. fiscal dynamics.
Slower growth and uncertain monetary policy.
Lower real yields from easier policy settings.
Rising demand from de-dollarization trends.
Investor appetite remains robust, with global gold ETF holdings rising by 23 tonnes in July to 3,639 tonnes, while assets under management touched $386 billion. UBS has also revised its 2025 ETF demand forecast to 600 tonnes, projecting total gold demand at 4,760 tonnes—the highest since 2011.
Central Banks Keep Buying
Official sector purchases remain a powerful driver, with 415 tonnes of net buying in the first half of 2025 alone. A recent World Gold Council survey revealed:
95% of reserve managers expect global gold reserves to increase in the next 12 months.
43% plan to add to their own holdings, underscoring confidence in gold as a long-term reserve asset.
FirstGold Outlook
With consumer sentiment showing signs of strain, central banks maintaining strong demand, and institutional investors raising allocations, the long-term outlook for gold remains highly supportive.
While day-to-day movements hinge on data releases and U.S. dollar strength, the broader trend points towards sustained upside, reinforcing gold’s role as both a hedge and a growth asset.
