$3,000-per-ounce gold would have been the stuff of wild fantasy just six months ago. Today, it’s the baseline scenario of precious metals experts, according to the latest poll from Reuters.
Analysts are forecasting an average annual gold price above $3,000 for the first time, the news agency’s quarterly poll showed on Thursday.
The poll of 29 traders and analysts delivered a median forecast of $3,065 per ounce for gold this year, up from the $2,756 prediction in the previous poll just three months ago. The gold price estimate for 2026 was also upgraded from $2,700 to $3,000.
Respondents highlighted global trade tensions and the growing trend of de-dollarization as key drivers behind the yellow metal’s rise. Spot gold was already up over 25% so far in 2025, almost equaling the 27% gain from all of last year.
“Gold looks set for what can only be described as another epic year,” independent analyst Ross Norman told Reuters. “Like in the early 2000s, gold is seeing buying on price strength, which can have the effect of feeding upon itself.”
Although gold prices have pulled back nearly $300 from the all-time high of $3,500 set one week ago, analysts believe the precious metal will remain supported by the ever-changing U.S. tariff policies and what are expected to be long and difficult trade negotiations.
“Gold’s fortune will continue to depend on other markets’ misfortune,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. Hansen said bullion will continue to enjoy solid support as long as the broader market’s focus remains on de-dollarization and the impact of U.S. tariffs on global growth and fiscal stability.
Other analysts warned that the gold trade has become crowded even as sky-high prices dampen jewelry demand.
“Price risks persist given the physical market is wavering and central bank flows – while positive – are slowing, while an unwinding of tariff risk and fading recession risk can stall gold’s safe-haven appeal,” said Suki Cooper, analyst at Standard Chartered.
Turning to silver prices, the quarterly poll forecasted an average spot price of $33.10 per ounce in 2025, which was unchanged from the previous survey. Respondents also raised their 2026 silver price forecast from $33.45 to $34.58 on the expectation that the gray metal will receive support from the ongoing structural market deficit and the global clean energy transition.
“Industrial demand is currently a little hampered by oversupply of solar cells, but this should work its way through. Strengthening demand from autos and AI will also help to keep the market in a deficit of supply vs fabrication demand, which will widen in 2026,” said StoneX analyst Rhona O’Connell.
Silver has only delivered half of the gains that gold has in 2025, rising 12% year-to-date as the combination of slowing industrial demand – which now represents over half of the total – and the lack of investment interest from central banks have hurt the gray metal relative to gold.
Source: Ernest Hoffman Kitco
