Citi has raised its short-term gold price forecast back to $3,500 per ounce, with escalating tariffs and heightened geopolitical risk as key drivers of the safe-haven metal.
In a research note released Sunday, the investment bank is projecting gold to trade in a range of $3,100 to $3,500 within the next three months—up from its previous estimate of $3,000 to $3,300 set on May 12.
The revision follows Friday’s escalation of trade concerns after US President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff against the European Union starting June 1, which he has since backed off on.
Despite the bullish revision, Citi analyst remain cautious on gold over the longer term, citing two possible headwinds: The potential for economic growth and related equity risks to unwind as the US midterms approach and the Federal Reserve cuts rates; and the fact that households are now holding the most gold they have in half a century.
Citi, which has maintained a bullish outlook on gold since 2023, first lifted its price target to $3,500 per ounce in April 2025. That target was briefly surpassed on April 22 amid rising concerns over the Fed’s independence. As trade tensions later eased, this short-term forecast was adjusted down to $3,150 —a level gold reached on May 15—signaling a phase of consolidation.
Looking ahead, Citi expects gold prices to stabilize around current levels, with a strong potential for range-bound trading between $3,100 and $3,500 in the second half of 2025. The bank sees this period as an opportunity for tactical positioning rather than directional bets.
Moreover, gold’s underlying demand remains historically strong, as roughly 0.5% of global GDP is currently being spent on gold—the highest proportion in five decades, Citi notes.
This is driven by high levels of uncertainty fueling investment flows into bullion, while resilience in key markets such as India or China continue to support jewelry demand despite record-high prices, the bank says.
Source: Mining.com
