Gold fell $27 on Friday to close at $3,335 per ounce as hotter-than-expected US producer prices reignited inflation fears. July’s PPI rose 0.9% month-over-month, beating forecasts and keeping the Fed cautious on cutting rates.
Silver slipped below $38 per ounce after briefly touching $38.70—its highest level since late July. Analysts say inflation-sensitive assets like precious metals are vulnerable to economic data swings.
Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch summed it up: while consumer prices were quiet earlier, the surge in producer prices “reminds markets that inflation isn’t tamed yet.”
Gold down $27 to $3,335/oz
Silver below $38/oz
Cause: Stronger-than-expected US producer prices
Fed Policy and Jackson Hole in Focus
The inflation shock has tempered expectations for a September rate cut. Futures now price in less than a quarter-point reduction, down from earlier bets of 50 basis points. Traders are also watching US import tariff headlines where uncertainty around possible reinstatements has kept a $50 premium between Comex gold and global spot prices.
Next week’s events will set the tone for gold:
Wed, Aug 20: FOMC Member Waller speaks; Fed Minutes released
Thu, Aug 21: Jobless claims, Philly Fed, Manufacturing & Services PMI
Fri, Aug 22: Fed Chair Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole Symposium
With global tariff uncertainty and the Trump-Putin summit on top of that, it’s a volatile week. A hawkish Powell could weigh on gold, while dovish signals might boost safe-haven demand.
Gold Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
Gold is in a classic symmetrical triangle since late July. Prices have been squeezing between descending resistance at $3,405 and rising support at $3,330. This is indecision, but also a build-up for a big move.
Gold is at $3,335, just below the 50-SMA at $3,348 which is immediate resistance. Candlestick action shows hesitation with small-bodied bars and long wicks, buyers and sellers are locked in a stalemate.Momentum is neutral but weak: RSI is at 41, not oversold. MACD lines are negative but the histogram is declining, sellers may be losing control.
Key levels:
Above $3,348 could be $3,375 and $3,405.
Below $3,329 could be $3,312 or $3,288.
For traders it’s like a spring being compressed. A confirmed break in either direction should unleash momentum. Long above $3,348 with stops under $3,329 targets $3,374-$3,405. If the lower bound breaks, shorts to $3,312-$3,288.
Gold (XAU/USD) Week Ahead
Going into Jackson Hole, gold will be sensitive to every Fed word and new inflation data. The triangle suggests a break is near but the trigger will be macro headlines. For now, patience may be the best position—because when this coil unwinds, the move will be big.
Source: Fxleaders
