In the first half of 2024 , gold demonstrated the highest returns among various investment instruments. Bank deposits, currencies, foreign currency bonds, real estate, and even dividend stocks lagged behind the precious metal in terms of growth. Let’s take a look at the current situation in the gold market and the forecasts for the remainder of the year.
The main surge in global gold prices was recorded between February and April 2024. Over the past three months, gold has been trading in the range of $2,300–2,450 per ounce, with frequent fluctuations around the $2,350 mark, representing a 2–4% variation.
In rubles, the situation depends on the ruble-dollar exchange rate dynamics. Since mid-April, the ruble has strengthened by 10%, leading to a corresponding decrease in gold prices in rubles. On the Moscow Exchange, the price of one gram of gold fluctuates between 6,350–6,700 rubles, and by the end of July, it stabilized at around 6,500 rubles. Due to the volatility in exchange rates, significant price fluctuations are observed—up to 3% per day and more.
Most analysts make forecasts for the end of each calendar quarter. The current consensus forecast by Russian experts, according to Cbonds, is $2,400 per ounce by the end of the year, with a projected dollar exchange rate of 94.2 rubles. This corresponds to a price of 7,270 rubles per gram, indicating a potential growth of 12%.
Foreign analysts, relying on Bloomberg data, expect a lower gold price—around $2,340 per ounce, with the dollar at 92.2 rubles. This suggests that one gram of gold could be worth 6,940 rubles, indicating a 7% increase.
In the futures market, gold is traded in the form of futures contracts, both in dollars (GOLD contracts) and in rubles (GL and GLDRUBF contracts). The most liquid futures contracts are set to expire in September, but trades for December contracts are already actively taking place.
Traders dealing in dollars generally have a bearish outlook: 70% of individual investors are shorting the metal against the dollar through GOLD contracts. Meanwhile, ruble futures GL and GLDRUBF show significant accumulation of bullish positions—55–70% of all positions are long, indicating a bet on the ruble’s weakening (dollar appreciation) rather than on gold as an asset.
Historical chart analysis shows that after reaching historical highs, gold often enters a long-term correction. The metal begins trading in a broad sideways corridor and then shows a decline.
In the absence of new drivers, this scenario could repeat, and gold may lose at least half of the gains achieved in the first half of the year. The support level at $2,070 per ounce, which gold has unsuccessfully tried to break through from below several times over the past five years, could become crucial. A correction to this level would result in an 11% drop in the dollar price of gold.
However, in rubles, the situation might be different. If the dollar exchange rate remains within the range of 90–95 rubles per dollar, gold would lose about 5% of its value. If the exchange rate rises to 95–100 rubles per dollar, gold could show a growth of 2%.
Since mid-April, gold has slowed its growth in dollars and continues to decline in rubles due to the ruble’s strengthening. Most analysts expect gold to recover and grow by the end of the year. Forecasts for the end of December 2024 range from $2,340 to $2,400 per ounce, corresponding to 6,940–7,270 rubles per gram, indicating a growth potential of 7–12%. Traders are betting on gold’s decline in dollars and its rise in rubles, expecting currency fluctuations. Technical analysis suggests the possibility of a 10% correction in gold prices, but this drop may be less noticeable in rubles due to the dollar’s appreciation.
These conclusions will help investors better understand possible scenarios for the gold market in the coming months and make informed decisions regarding their investments.
By Asif Aydinli News.Az
