Gold prices are modestly up and silver prices weaker in early U.S. trading Tuesday. Gold is seeing mild safe-haven buying, while silver is seeing some routine profit-taking pressure from the shorter-term futures traders. The general marketplace remains somewhat on edge amid heightened geopolitics. June gold was last up $7.40 at $2,390.40. May silver was last down $0.257 at $28.46.
Risk aversion is still elevated Tuesday, following the weekend Iranian air attacks on Israel. Israel’s military chief said Israel will retaliate, despite U.S. warnings to Israel that the U.S. won’t participate in any retaliation. NBC reports that an Israeli military response to Iran’s attack is imminent. At present, the general marketplace appears to be taking any Israeli retaliation lightly, as markets are not seeing keen risk aversion or stronger moves into safe-haven assets. This full-time 40-year markets watcher thinks the marketplace is presently dead wrong, regarding thinking the Israel-Iran conflict will not escalate significantly. It seems to me that Israel finally has its good excuse to take out or seriously degrade Iran’s military and its nuclear weapons capability. Iran has vowed in the past to destroy Israel.
In overnight news, China’s first-quarter GDP beat market expectations by rising 5.3%, year-on-year versus 5.2% in the fourth quarter of 20/22 and 4.8% expected by forecasters. On the downside, China’s industrial production in March was up 6.1% versus up 7.0% February and 6.6% forecast. March retail Sales were up 4.7%, year-on-year versus up 5.5% in February and 5.4% expected. And the bad news: China’s property Investment was down 9.5% in March compared to down 9.0% in February and down 9.2% expected by the marketplace. Residential property Sales were down 30.7% in March versus down 32.7% in February, year-on-year.
Asian and European stock indexes were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $85.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.63%.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, new residential construction, and industrial production and capacity utilization. Several Federal Reserve officials are also slated to speak today.
Technically, the gold futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. A two-month-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in June futures above solid resistance at $2,500.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,300.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,408.50 and then at $2,425.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $2,379.20 and then at $2,365.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 9.0.
The silver bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May futures prices above solid technical resistance at $30.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $26.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $29.10 and then at $29.50. Next support is seen at $28.00 and then at this week’s low of $27.665. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 8.5.
Source: Jim Wyckoff Kitco
