Gold prices are slightly up and silver prices sharply higher in early U.S. trading Monday. Silver hit a three-week high overnight. A sharp sell off in the U.S. dollar index to start the trading week is supporting the precious metals markets. However, rising U.S. Treasury yields are a bearish outside-market element for the two metals. February gold was last up $2.60 at $2,657.30 and March silver was up $0.805 at $30.87.
Bloomberg reports Goldman Sachs no longer sees gold reaching $3,000 an ounce by the end of 2025, pushing its forecast for that level to mid-2026 on expectations the Fed will make fewer U.S. interest-rate cuts. Gold prices gained 27% in 2024.
Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly higher openings when the New York day session begins.
In overnight/weekend news, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is expected to announce his resignation this week, according to reports. The reports boosted the Canadian dollar in the foreign exchange market.
The U.S. data point of the week is the employment situation report for December on Friday. It’s forecast to show non-payrolls increasing by 160,000. That compares to a gain of 227,000 in the November jobs report.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index sharply lower on corrective pullback after hitting a more-than-two-year high last week. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly up and trading around $74.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is on the rise and is presently at 4.592%–the highest level since 2023. Bloomberg reports the uptick in bond yields adds further pressure to U.S. government debt, which has come under scrutiny over concerns the incoming Trump administration will reignite inflation. There’s $119 billion of U.S. government debt issuance this week, amid growing concern Republican-controlled Congress will push up spending and increase the U.S. budget deficit.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the U.S. services purchasing managers index (PMI), the global services PMI, and manufacturers’ shipments, inventories and orders.
Technically, February gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,700.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the November low of $2,565.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $2,663.80 and then at last week’s high of $2,681.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $2,636.60 and then at $2,625.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.0.
March silver futures bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. A nine-week-old downtrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. More gains this week would negate the downtrend, however. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $32.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the December low of $29.145. First resistance is seen at $31.00 and then at $31.50. Next support is seen at $30.50 and then at $30.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 4.5
Source: Jim Wyckoff Kitco
