Gold prices are slightly higher and not far below last week’s record highs in early U.S. trading Monday. Silver futures are slightly down. Continued safe-haven demand amid elevated concerns over a global trade war, bullish charts and notions of an easier Federal Reserve monetary policy are keeping a price floor under the precious metals markets. April gold was last up $3.40 at $3,004.50. May silver prices were last down $0.143 at $34.29.
The U.S. data point of the week will be the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chair Powell. The marketplace expects no interest rate changes at this meeting, but it will closely parse wording coming from the FOMC statement and Powell’s presser.
Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.
In overnight news, some China economic data was surprisingly strong, with retail sales up 4% in the first two months of the year, year-on-year. China’s industrial production was up 5.9% in the same period. Both readings were better than the December numbers. China combines its January-February economic data to smooth it out due to the Lunar New Year holiday.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) think tank reported it expects 2025 global economic growth to slow to 3.1% from 3.3% in its previous forecast.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil futures prices are firmer and trading around $68.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.31%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Empire State manufacturing survey, retail sales, the NAHB housing index, and manufacturing and trade inventories.
Technically, April gold futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,100.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,900.00. First resistance is seen at the contract high of $3,017.10 and then at $3,025.00. First support is seen at Friday’s low of $2,988.60 and then at $2,974.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 9.0.
May silver futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the October 2024 high of $35.80. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at this week’s low of $32.215. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $34.86 and then at $35.00. Next support is seen at $34.00 and then at $33.50. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 7.0.
Source: Jim Wyckoff Kitco
