Skip to content Skip to footer

Gold prices could peak by mid-April, new highs to follow in early summer – Goldwavetrader’s Curry

Gold prices may be heading for a significant near-term correction, but all indications are for the rally to resume as summer begins, according to Jim Curry, Chief Analyst at Goldwavetrader.

Curry noted that during the second half of March, gold continued to post higher highs, as expected. “While higher numbers should still be in the cards near-term, Gold is setting up for its next key price top,” he said, adding that the last significant low “came with our 72-day time cycle,” which bottomed out a month earlier, in mid-February.

“From that low, we were expecting a sharp rally to play out, which we are currently in,” he said, sharing the following chart showing his 72-day gold market cycle.

“This 72-day cycle component was projected to bottom into the late-January to mid- February region – as shown by our 72-day detrend indicator, which is still pointing slightly higher at the present time,” Curry said. “In terms of time, the average rally phases with this 72-day cycle were noted as having taken 39 trading days before topping, which suggested the potential for higher highs into early-April or later.”

“I mentioned then, the potential for a push up to the 2230-2260 region (for the April contract) – which the recent action has now satisfied,” Curry said. “With the price assumptions having already been met – and with the time assumptions drawing near – we will be on the lookout for the next peak for this cycle.”

He wrote that once the current 72-day wave tops out, he expects a significant correction in the following weeks, “something in the range of 8-10% off the highs – with the 72-day moving average providing a normal magnet.”

Turning to the technical picture, Curry said that after gold’s highs last week, he’s looking for “any technical signs of a peak forming, with the first of these coming from our Gold Timing Index.”

He noted that the Gold Timing Index “is well above its upper reference line of 100, and is something we might expect to see at a peak with our 72-day wave,” but cautioned that it’s “too early for this wave to actually top out, and thus this will be more critical the further we move past the first week or so of April.”

To the downside, Curry said that when the new Gold cycle indicator falls below its lower reference line, “we would expect the metal to be closer to a bottom – and thus a short-term ‘buy’ signal. This occurred on Monday of last week, with Gold closing that day at the 2198.20 figure (June, 2024 contract).”

He added that “a push back above the upper reference line with our Gold cycle indicator – if seen in the days ahead – would be viewed as a short-term ‘sell’ signal for Gold, in light of the position of our (aforementioned) 72-day time cycle.”

Based on his previous analysis, Curry said “the overall assumption favored Gold to be in the midst of a 20%+ rally off the October 2023 bottom, coming from our next larger wave, the 310-day component.”

He said that the 310-day cycle last bottomed in October 2023, which indicates that gold would be “pushing higher into late-Spring to early-Summer” of 2024, with potential for gold “to reach up to the 2270-2300 region, simply based upon the average (20%) rallies with this wave.”

Curry believes a 72-day cycle top in April “would be favored to give way to a countertrend correction in the weeks to follow, one that remains well above the February trough for this wave.” If this were to occur as predicted, “what follows should be another sharp rally of some 10-14% playing out on the next 72-day cycle upward phase.”

“Stepping back further, a countertrend correction with our 72-day cycle – one which gives way to higher highs into early-Summer – should eventually top our bigger 310-day cycle once again, for what is expected to be a larger-degree decline into early next year,” he concluded.

Source: Ernest Hoffman Kitco