AUD Gold holds near $5,130 amid easing geopolitical tensions and looming rate cut expectations
Gold prices in Australian dollars are hovering near a critical technical level this week, as investors brace for a wave of key U.S. economic reports—including GDP, jobs, and PCE inflation data—that could shape expectations for interest rate cuts in the months ahead.
At time of writing, spot gold sits at AUD $5,130 per ounce, with recent price action showing a pause near its 50-day moving average. This level has acted as a pivot point for gold’s direction since the start of the year.
“Gold is clinging to support as traders weigh softening geopolitical risks against the growing likelihood of U.S. rate cuts,” said market analyst James Hyerczyk at FX Empire. “The metal has now spent two sessions struggling to break away from its 50-day average, with markets awaiting Thursday’s GDP print and Friday’s employment and PCE inflation numbers.”
Earlier this year, safe-haven demand surged amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. However, recent reports of a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel—and diplomatic overtures from former President Trump—have helped cool geopolitical stress, weakening one of gold’s key bullish drivers.
At the same time, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remains under pressure, unable to hold above its own 50-day average. Tuesday’s attempt to break through resistance at 99.421 failed, reinforcing the ceiling and hinting at further downside toward the 97.621 and 95.137 support levels. A weaker U.S. dollar typically supports higher gold prices, though the recent strength in global equities has curbed gold’s upside momentum.
Adding to the bullish backdrop for metals, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has reiterated that rate cuts remain on the table if inflation remains contained. Traders now price in an 85% probability of a September rate cut, with up to 60 basis points in easing expected by the end of 2025.
Despite this dovish outlook, technical analysts note gold has struggled to sustain upward momentum. The recent rally stalled well short of the all-time high of AUD $5,395, prompting some traders to fade rallies and adopt a short-term bearish stance.
Hyerczyk warns that if this week’s economic data comes in stronger than expected, gold could face further downside, with support levels at AUD $5,030 and AUD $4,935. “Without renewed geopolitical tension or a significant drop in the U.S. dollar, the yellow metal could revisit the AUD $4,700–$4,800 range in the near term.”
Meanwhile, silver prices are also holding steady, currently trading at AUD $55.90 per ounce, with investor sentiment improving slightly amid expectations of industrial demand recovery and dollar softness.
For Australian investors, FirstGold continues to offer premium pricing and secure storage for physical bullion purchases. Whether you’re adding to your portfolio or looking to capitalise on current levels, now may be the time to reassess your position ahead of a potentially volatile second half of 2025.
