After its first down week in two months, gold prices caught a bid and marched higher once again this week, giving market participants renewed confidence in the yellow metal once again.
Spot gold kicked off the week trading at $2,858 per ounce, but quickly established $2,860 as a near-term low, before climbing quickly above $2,880 per ounce during the early part of the North American trading session on Monday.
This level was quickly established as the new line of support, and it held without serious challenge for the duration of the week.
Late Tuesday evening saw spot gold spike from $2,886 per ounce at 1:30 a.m. Eastern all the way to $2,927 per ounce by 8:00 a.m. Gold prices appeared well-supported above $2,900 per ounce from that point onward, as the yellow metal once again tested the high $2,920s in mid-morning trading Wednesday. But even the failure to break above this level only prompted a brief dip down to $2,894 early Thursday morning, and by noon Eastern, spot gold was once again trading at $2,920 per ounce.
From there, gold prices maintained their relatively narrow trading range between $2,900 and $2,926 per ounce, and after another brief pullback to a low of $2,905 in the middle of the afternoon on Friday, the yellow metal headed into the weekend trading at $2,911 per ounce.
The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed bullish sentiment returning with a vengeance, with two-thirds of industry experts and retail traders betting on higher gold prices during the week to come.
“Up,” said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management. “It would appear that the pullback I called for is over! Gold’s resilience to any declines since the election is quite stunning. The reasons that people have been buying gold have not gone away, and we expect another assault on new all-time highs shortly.”
“Higher,” said Rich Checkan, president and COO of Asset Strategies International. “Stock market jitters and inflations concerns are enough to keep gold climbing.”
“Up,” said Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart.com. “It was foolish of me to change my view to down last week. Long-term investors in markets across the board are not interested in technical or fundamental analysis; they are simply looking for a safe-haven market given the continued geopolitical chaos and increased volatility created by the US administration and its allies.”
“It’s interesting to note there is getting to be more talk of a recession,” Newsom added, “which could bring another layer of buying to precious metals in general, gold in particular.”
Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management, told Kitco News he’s taking a neutral stance on gold prices in the near term. “It has had a strong run lately and now appears to be consolidating its recent gains while waiting for the next shoe to drop, economically or politically.”
“What we’re probably looking at now is currency moves and interest rate moves,” Cieszynski said. “What do tariffs mean for the U.S. dollar? We saw that this week there was a massive rally in the Euro, and that came out of nowhere around Germany, so there’s a lot of moving pieces.”
But the next likely catalyst Cieszynski is watching for is the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in a couple of weeks.
“That’s when the rubber’s going to hit the road,” he said. “It’s not necessarily, ‘Is the Fed going to cut rates,’ but the Fed’s going to put out their forecasts. Nonfarm payrolls is out. We’ll get an inflation report, maybe a retail sales report, get a better sense of where things are heading, and then see, what does Powell have to say? What do the Fed members have to say?”
“Are they going to hit the panic button, or are they staying the course?” he asked. “That’s probably the next thing that I think could have a sizable impact on trends in Treasury yields, trends in the U.S. dollar, and trends in gold.”
Cieszynski said he’s not surprised to see gold prices in consolidation mode these days after the major shocks the market has had to digest.
“We had this big rally in gold, from $2,600 to $2,900 back at the start of the year. And now what? How much of that has already been priced in? How much of the impact of trade wars, the impact of the slowing economy? That’s our question right now,” he said. “Has gold priced in enough of the slowdown, or enough potential weakness in the U. S. dollar? Has it overshot? Has it undershot? We don’t know, and that’s why we’re stuck grinding sideways right now.”
As far as the balance of risks for gold, Cieszynski sees them pretty even at present. “That’s why we’re in this, because it’s kind of 50/50,” he said. “But personally, I have a suspicion that gold may yet touch $3,000 sometime soon, especially if we do start to see weakness or political volatility or something. We’re within striking distance of $3,000 as it is. How much further through we go, I don’t know.”
“It would not take much from here to push gold up to $3,000.”
This week, 18 analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, with Wall Street’s bulls returning in force after a week in the wilderness. 12 experts, or 67%, expected to see gold prices rise during the week ahead, while only one analyst, or 5%, predicted a price decline for the precious metal. The remaining five experts, representing 28% of the total, saw more consolidation ahead for gold next week.
Meanwhile, 251 votes were cast in Kitco’s online poll – a high-water mark for turnout in 2025 – with Main Street returning to its overwhelming bullish bias once again. 168 retail traders, or 67%, looked for gold prices to rise higher next week, while another 44, or 18%, expected the yellow metal to trade lower. The remaining 39 investors, representing 26% of the total, saw gold trending sideways in the near term.
Next week brings inflation back into the limelight, with markets receiving a number of significant metrics on U.S. price stability and the health of the American consumer. The highlights will be Wednesday’s CPI report for February, followed by PPI on Thursday, with Friday’s University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment survey ending the week.
Other notable events include U.S. JOLTS job openings on Tuesday, the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday morning, and U.S. weekly jobless claims on Thursday.
Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex, said the gold price looks firm around $2,900 with upside potential.
“After recovering on Monday and Tuesday to start last week, the yellow metal has been consolidating, trading inside Tuesday’s range,” he said. “The nesting looks bullish and a retest on the record high set on February 24 a little above $2956 looks likely, perhaps in the week ahead.”
“Chinese inflation or deflation is reported over the weekend, and the US reports its CPI and PPI next Wednesday and Thursday,” Chandler added. “The Bank of Canada meets, and I suspect the threat of the tariffs, which already appears to be having a cooling off effect on the North American economy, will spur it to cut rates again. European yields have risen sharply amid new fiscal initiatives and the Dollar Index’s decline looks to be the largest in about five years.”
Adam Button, head of currency strategy at Forexlive.com, is leaning neutral on gold in the short term, but he remains very bullish on the yellow metal through 2025.
Button said the Fedspeak this week has been much more dovish than at any point this year. “We had Musalem earlier in the week, and we had Bowman today,” he said. “They were both a bit dovish, and those are hawks, too.”
He said the Fed is very much in wait-and-see mode right now. “The market’s debating [a rate cut in] May right now, which is the meeting after the March one,” he said. “It’s right around 50 percent now. I think the Fed is going to collect as much data and information as they can by May, and make a call closer to that date.”
“I think ultimately they end up waiting longer, because there are some real inflationary risks around tariffs, and the Fed always fights the last war,” he added. “If anything, they’re going to be inclined to be a bit more hawkish, given the 100 basis points [in cuts] already.”
That said, Button doesn’t see the Federal Reserve as the big driver for gold prices these days.
“The market conversation is dominated by politics right now, and Trump, and the tax cut, which is, I think, not getting enough discussion, how difficult that’s going to be,” he said. “I think we’re going to have to wait and see on that.”
Button agreed that the Trump chaos machine is driving the market and supporting gold more than anything that will come out of the Fed in the near term. “I say that without any hesitation,” he said. “I think the gold trade is 95% [Trump and geopolitics]. I would put the Fed at 5 percent of the conversation.”
“There are some real dollar unwinds going on, he added. “What’s happening in Europe is important, and more important than the Fed. Germany is talking about a generational change in fiscal policy, what’s happening in Bunds this week is wild, and the Euro.”
Button said everything he’s seeing points to a sustained flight to quality, which should continue to propel gold prices higher.
“If you look at U.S. stocks, the NASDAQ’s down 10%,” he said. “You have so many incentives to be looking for a safe haven right now. And maybe that’s the tell, that gold only fell $50, or whatever it was, and the bidders were there.”
“Every market participant I’m talking to is looking for safety,” Button added. “If you look at equities yesterday, what fell? Netflix, Broadcom, a lot of hedge fund favorites were falling yesterday. That argues that it’s deleveraging, and deleveraging means flight to safety.”
“There’s a world where we have $4,000 gold this year.”
“Up,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro. “Since early March, the gold price has reversed to the upside, regularly exceeding the $2900 mark during the week,” he said. “The cautious trading tone of the US indices works on the side of the bears, while the weakness of the dollar infuses confidence in the bulls.”
“On the tech analysis side, the dip at the end of last month now looks like a corrective pullback from the rally from the beginning of the year,” Kuptsikevich noted. “If this is the case, overcoming the highs above $2950 opens the way to $3180. Gold bulls should still look at the sentiment around US equities. Further declines could switch the market into global deleveraging mode, and gold will initially have a tough time.”
“I am overal bullish,” said Michael Moor, founder of Moor Analytics. “Decent trade below 29199 (+6 tics per/hour starting at 11:20am EST) will warn of decent pressure. In a higher time frame, we are still in an overall bull trend from November 2015, and likely in the later stages. Part of this is a prediction I made of $151 minimum, $954 (+) maximum from $2,148.4 – of which we have attained $825.0 so far. This is OFF HOLD.”
“On a lower time frame, the trade above 27041 (-.6 of a tic per/hour) has brought in $269.3 of strength,” Moor added. “The trade above 27247 (-.6 of a tic per/hour) projected this upward $55 minimum, $235 (+) maximum – we have attained $248.7. These are OFF HOLD. I warned we may be in the last stretch up from the 16183 low in November of 2022, with possible exhaustion at 29627-936 – we have held this 5 times now.”
And Kitco Senior Analyst Jim Wyckoff also expects to see gold prices post fresh gains in the near term. “Steady-higher as technicals remain overall bullish and geopolitical concerns remain elevated — namely a disruptive Trump administration.”
At the time of writing, spot gold last traded at $2,911.78 per ounce for a gain of 0.02% on the day and 1.34% on the week.
Source: Ernest Hoffman Kitco
