Gold’s blistering run in 2025 has made it one of the most compelling investment stories of the year. From a starting point near US$2,600 an ounce in January, the yellow metal has smashed through milestone after milestone, climbing past US$3,000 in March and hitting new highs above US$3,600 this month.
That’s a gain of nearly 38% year-to-date, outpacing both the S&P/ASX 200 and the S&P 500, and even eclipsing the much-hyped rally in Nvidia stock. ASX-listed gold producers and gold-backed ETFs have also seen outstanding performance as a result.
Why Analysts Are Turning More Bullish
The rally has prompted fresh debate: how much higher can gold climb? According to Goldman Sachs, there could be plenty of room left.
In comments reported by the Australian Financial Review, Goldman’s analyst Samantha Dart urged investors to increase exposure to commodities like gold, citing “threats to American institutions and increasing supply concentration” as key drivers of the next leg higher.
Those institutional risks stem primarily from President Donald Trump’s escalating pressure on the US Federal Reserve. Trump has repeatedly complained about interest rates and has openly discussed removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, even attempting to dismiss another Fed governor last month.
Goldman warns that such interference could undermine trust in the Fed, triggering wider market turmoil.
“A scenario where Fed independence is damaged would likely lead to higher inflation, lower bond and stock prices, and erosion of the US dollar’s reserve currency status,” Dart explained. “In contrast, gold is a store of value that doesn’t rely on institutional trust.”
The Case for US$4,500
Goldman’s base case sees prices averaging US$4,000 by mid-2026. But if private investors join central banks in shifting away from US Treasuries into gold, the bank believes prices could push well beyond that level.
“In a tail-risk scenario, we see potential upside above US$4,500 per ounce,” Dart noted.
With political uncertainty, a weaker US dollar, and aggressive central bank buying all converging, gold’s remarkable run may be far from over. For now, the world’s oldest safe-haven asset continues to shine brighter than most of its modern-day rivals.
