Gold’s relentless rally shows no sign of slowing, with ANZ projecting the precious metal will reach $4,400 per ounce by the end of 2025 and climb to a peak of $4,600 per ounce by mid-2026. The bank attributes this continued strength to persistent geopolitical instability, economic uncertainty, and expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts, which together continue to underpin robust safe-haven demand.
According to ANZ’s latest commodities outlook released Thursday, gold’s long-term momentum remains firmly intact. The bank expects prices to moderate slightly in the second half of 2026, as the Fed concludes its monetary easing cycle and markets gain greater clarity on the U.S. economic trajectory and trade policies.
“With returns exceeding 60% this year, taking gold to $4,200 per ounce, the rally remains powerful and well-supported,” ANZ analysts wrote. “We see no near-term catalyst that could reverse this trend, though a period of consolidation or minor correction would be healthy.”
The latest surge in gold prices saw the metal touch a fresh record high of $4,241.77 on Thursday, fuelled by renewed U.S.-China trade tensions after President Donald Trump threatened new tariffs on Chinese goods. Investor sentiment was further buoyed by growing conviction that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates before year-end, weakening the U.S. dollar and reinforcing gold’s appeal.
Global investment banks continue to revise their gold forecasts upward. UBS, for instance, pointed to the potential for real interest rates to fall into negative territory, arguing that this could further enhance gold’s role as a core portfolio asset. UBS sees the metal advancing toward its upside target of $4,700 per ounce, citing the confluence of lower yields, structural inflation pressures, and surging central bank demand.
Market Outlook for 2025–2026
The following are analysts’ latest gold price forecasts (per ounce):
-
ANZ: $4,400 by end-2025; peak at $4,600 by mid-2026
-
UBS: Upside target of $4,700 by 2026
-
Goldman Sachs: $4,900 by December 2026
-
JP Morgan: $4,500 by mid-2026
-
Citi: $4,300 by Q4 2025
The sustained rally reflects growing consensus that gold’s current bull run is not merely a reaction to short-term macro risks, but a broader structural shift. Persistent inflation, escalating geopolitical tensions, and accelerating central bank accumulation of bullion are all reinforcing gold’s status as the ultimate safe-haven asset.
As ANZ concluded, “Gold continues to shine as investors seek stability in an increasingly unstable world. Even after an exceptional year, the metal’s long-term fundamentals remain compelling.”
