Bulls Maintain Control as Spot Gold Trades Just Below Record Highs
Gold (XAU/USD) Weekly Outlook
Spot gold ended last week with strong upward momentum, reinforcing its bullish structure after successfully defending the weekly pivot at USD 4,133.95. Prices advanced toward the record high of USD 4,381.44, reaching an intraday peak of USD 4,353.55 before pausing. Nevertheless, a firm weekly close at USD 4,299.38, representing a 2.40% gain, keeps gold well within striking distance of fresh all-time highs.
With a delayed November U.S. jobs report and an unusually timed CPI release ahead, markets are bracing for key data that could trigger sharp moves across bond yields, the U.S. dollar and interest-rate expectations.
Rising Yields Complicate the Bullish Case
One of the most notable developments last week was the move in U.S. Treasuries. The 10-year yield climbed to 4.186%, its highest level since September 2025, finishing the week up 4.7 basis points.
Ordinarily, higher yields act as a headwind for non-yielding assets such as gold, and this likely contributed to bullion stalling just below last week’s highs. The Federal Reserve’s divided vote on a third consecutive rate cut also raised doubts about the pace of monetary easing in 2026, prompting markets to push yields higher rather than lower.
With the 10-year yield hovering near multi-month highs, any further rise this week could temporarily slow gold’s advance.
Dollar Weakness Continues to Support Gold
Despite rising yields, the U.S. dollar moved in the opposite direction, slipping to multi-month lows and providing ongoing support for gold prices. This divergence created a unique environment in which gold faced pressure from the bond market while continuing to benefit from overseas demand driven by favourable currency dynamics.
As long as the dollar remains soft, gold retains a key tailwind—even in the presence of elevated Treasury yields.
CPI and Payrolls in Focus
This week’s economic data will be pivotal in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy steps. Payrolls are forecast to show flat hiring in October, followed by a modest 50,000 increase in November, with the unemployment rate edging up to 4.5%.
Inflation data is more complex due to the missing October CPI release, leaving markets to interpret a combined two-month reading. Current estimates point to a 0.5% cumulative rise in headline CPI and an annual rate of 3.1%. Any upside surprise could reinforce the recent rise in yields and test gold’s resilience.
Gold Price Forecast: Bullish Bias Intact
The broader weekly outlook for gold remains bullish while prices hold above USD 4,133.95. Last week’s strong close at USD 4,299.38 keeps upside pressure firmly in place. A decisive break above USD 4,353.55 would quickly shift focus back to the record high at USD 4,381.44.
Rising yields remain the primary near-term risk. However, unless CPI or payrolls data trigger a sustained bond market sell-off, gold appears well positioned for another attempt at new all-time highs.
