Gold prices could rally beyond $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026 as escalating geopolitical risks drive safe-haven demand, according to analysts at HSBC. However, the bank cautions that a sharp correction may follow later in the year.
In a research note released this week, HSBC said it now expects gold to reach a peak of $5,050 per ounce within the first six months of 2026, raising its previous $5,000 target. Despite the bullish near-term outlook, the bank anticipates heightened volatility throughout the year.
For full-year 2026, HSBC forecasts gold trading within a broad range of $3,950 to $5,050 per ounce, warning that prices could retreat sharply if geopolitical tensions ease or if the US Federal Reserve pauses or reverses its interest rate cuts. Reflecting this risk, the bank has slightly lowered its average gold price forecast for 2026 to $4,587 per ounce, down from $4,600, with an end-of-year target of $4,450.
“We see a wide trading range for gold in 2026, characterised by elevated volatility,” HSBC analysts noted.
The bank remains constructive on gold’s underlying fundamentals, citing continued strong central bank buying, persistent concerns over US dollar weakness, and sustained investor interest in gold-backed exchange-traded funds as key drivers of long-term support.
Looking beyond 2026, HSBC expects gold prices to continue trending higher. The bank projects average prices of $4,625 per ounce in 2027 and $4,700 in 2028, significantly higher than its previous forecasts. HSBC also introduced a new long-term outlook, estimating an average gold price of $4,775 per ounce in 2029.
As of Friday morning, gold was trading above $4,500 per ounce, around $50 below its all-time high. The precious metal is coming off its strongest annual performance since 1979, having recorded a 65% gain over the past year.
