Gold has surged to a fresh record near US$4,600 per ounce, driven by mounting concerns over the independence of the US Federal Reserve and escalating unrest in Iran. Analysts now believe the rally in one of 2025’s strongest-performing commodities may have further to run, supported purely by safe-haven demand.
Bullion climbed to just below US$4,570 on Monday after the US Justice Department signalled potential criminal action against the Federal Reserve. Chair Jerome Powell warned that the threat should be viewed within the broader context of sustained political pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates and lower borrowing costs.
As gold offers no yield, falling or threatened interest rates tend to boost its appeal as a store of value, reinforcing investor demand during periods of monetary uncertainty.
At the same time, deadly protests in Iran have intensified geopolitical risk, adding to haven flows into precious metals amid speculation over potential regime instability. The unrest follows closely on the heels of the US seizure of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, further amplifying global political tensions.
“Gold is benefiting from continued concerns around currency debasement alongside rising geopolitical risk,” said Sebastian Mullins, Head of Multi-Asset and Fixed Income at Schroders. “In the US, President Trump continues to pressure the Federal Reserve, while uncertainty in Venezuela and now Iran is driving additional safe-haven demand.”
Gold gained around 65% in 2025, marking its strongest annual performance in nearly five decades. The rally has been fuelled by falling US yields, persistent geopolitical volatility, currency debasement fears, and sustained central bank buying.
The surge in prices has spilled into the physical market, with reports of long queues forming outside ABC Bullion in Sydney as investors rushed to secure bullion.
Looking ahead, several market strategists believe gold could breach the US$5,000 mark. Justin Lin, Investment Strategist at Global X, described gold as “one of the most attractive investments of 2026”, citing ongoing central bank accumulation, elevated geopolitical risks, and strong exchange-traded fund inflows.
Robin Tsui, Gold Strategist at State Street Investment Management, said continued volatility across global markets could see prices extend further into record territory, with a bullish scenario pointing to US$5,000 per ounce in 2026.
Even before renewed concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence, UBS Global Wealth Management commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo said gold could crack the US$5,000 level as early as March. “Even after a strong rally, gold can advance further into record territory,” he said. “Its role as a portfolio diversifier and hedge remains undiminished.”
Gold’s latest surge sparked strong gains among ASX-listed producers, with Ramelius up 6.3%, Newmont rising 5.8%, Northern Star gaining 2.9%, and Regis Resources adding 2.7%.
However, not all stocks benefited equally. South-East Asian explorer Unity Metals finished flat on its ASX debut despite a strong intraday move. The stock rose to 22¢ after listing at 20¢, but closed unchanged.
Unity’s flagship asset sits adjacent to Emerald Resources’ Okvau mine in eastern Cambodia. Emerald’s shares nearly doubled in 2025, highlighting the performance gap between established producers and early-stage explorers.
Lowell Resources Management director and Unity shareholder Richard Morrow described the debut as “pretty reasonable”, noting that smaller, lesser-known companies do not always immediately benefit from a rising gold price.
“The winds are clearly behind gold right now,” he said. “It’s not often you see the chairman of the US Federal Reserve under investigation while being aggressively pressured on interest rates.”
