Gold’s powerful rally is beginning to echo one of the most dramatic periods in modern financial history, with veteran market watchers drawing striking parallels to the late-1970s gold supercycle. After surging 65 per cent last year, gold recorded its strongest annual performance since 1979, catching the attention of a new generation of investors who have never experienced a true inflation-driven bullion boom.
For Cameron Judd, a long-time gold specialist at Victor Smorgon Group, today’s market feels uncomfortably familiar. He sees clear similarities between the current bull run—now in its second year—and the 1978–1980 period, when the US Federal Reserve lost control of inflation and investor confidence in the US dollar deteriorated sharply.
That earlier episode was defined by extreme interest rates, with US policy rates eventually exceeding 19 per cent, alongside geopolitical shocks including the Iranian Revolution and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. In that environment, demand for hard assets surged and gold prices rocketed 127 per cent in 1979 alone.
According to Judd, the current rally— which began in 2024 — has followed an almost identical trajectory during its early stages.
“At the beginning of 1980, the US dollar gold price peaked at $US850 an ounce, which was 66 per cent higher than the price at the start of that year,” Judd said.
“A similar move from the end of 2025 would imply a gold price above $US7,000 an ounce.”
With bullion currently trading near $US4,595 an ounce, just below this week’s record high of $US4,634, such a move would equate to gains of more than 50 per cent in 2026 alone.
History Repeating
Gold’s strong start to 2026 has been fuelled by familiar drivers. Geopolitical tensions are escalating, with unrest in Iran raising regime-change concerns, while US actions in Latin America have heightened global uncertainty. At the same time, growing alarm over ballooning US debt levels is pushing investors away from the US dollar and back toward hard assets.
While gold equities lagged the metal itself for several years, miners finally broke out in 2025 — delivering outsized returns to investors positioned early.
Gold now represents around 20 per cent of Victor Smorgon Group’s $1 billion portfolio, equating to a $200 million exposure to the sector. The group’s Resources Gold Fund surged 108 per cent last year, and Judd believes Australian producers are only just beginning to benefit from the current pricing environment.
In 2025, Australian gold miners generated average all-in sustaining cost margins of $2,900 an ounce, based on an average gold price of $5,317 an ounce. With gold ending 2025 at $6,481 an ounce, margins are expected to expand further in the year ahead.
Despite this, Judd argues the market is still failing to fully price in the earnings power of the sector.
Global gold equities are trading at just 6.5 times forward earnings, below the long-term average of 7.5 times and well under the broader equity market multiple of 13.5 times.
Other fund managers agree. Argonaut’s Global Gold Fund, which returned 119 per cent in 2025, remains positioned for further upside. Its largest holdings include Genesis Minerals, Capricorn Metals, Greatland Resources and Bellevue Gold.
“Tailwinds for gold remain firmly in place,” said portfolio manager David Franklyn. “Investors continue to seek alternatives to the US dollar, global debt levels remain elevated, and geopolitical tensions show no signs of easing.”
For bullion investors, the message is clear: if history continues to rhyme, the current gold cycle may still be in its early stages — with substantially higher prices yet to come.
