Gold prices retreated below the key $4,600 level, failing to extend their recent upside momentum as markets increasingly price in expectations that the US Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in the months ahead.
The shift in rate expectations has weighed on bullion demand, as higher-for-longer interest rates reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold. However, persistent geopolitical risks and broader economic uncertainty continue to provide an underlying floor for prices.
Traders are now turning their attention to the US Initial Jobless Claims report due later on Thursday, which could offer fresh direction for precious metals.
Gold Under Pressure as US Data Strengthens Rate Pause Outlook
Gold remains under pressure amid mounting evidence of US economic resilience. Recent data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the unemployment rate edged lower to 4.4% in December, underscoring continued strength in the labour market.
Additional data released midweek revealed a modest rise in US producer prices in November, while retail sales exceeded market expectations. Together, these indicators reinforce the Federal Reserve’s case for maintaining current interest rates, reducing the urgency for near-term rate cuts and weighing on gold prices.
Focus Turns to Jobless Claims as Geopolitical Risks Limit Downside
Looking ahead, market participants remain cautious ahead of the weekly US Initial Jobless Claims figures, expected to rise slightly to 215,000 from the previous 208,000. A modest increase in claims could signal some softening in the labour market, potentially easing US dollar strength and offering short-term support to gold.
At the same time, escalating geopolitical tensions continue to underpin safe-haven demand. Relations between the US and Iran have deteriorated after President Trump warned of possible action following a violent crackdown on protesters. The US has reportedly deployed military assets to the region, while Iran has warned neighbouring countries against supporting any potential attack. The cancellation of diplomatic meetings has further heightened fears of escalation.
Concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence are also contributing to market uncertainty, helping sustain investor interest in gold despite near-term price pressure.
Gold Price Forecast: Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $4,603 after consolidating within a rising price channel on the four-hour chart. Price action remains mixed, with smaller-bodied candles forming in the $4,640–$4,695 zone, reflecting short-term indecision after rejection near upper resistance.
Despite the pullback, gold continues to trade above the rising trendline and the 50-period EMA, keeping the broader short-term structure constructive. The mid-channel region, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, is acting as dynamic support.
Immediate support is seen at $4,571, followed by stronger support near $4,520, where the lower boundary of the rising channel converges.
Momentum indicators suggest consolidation rather than reversal, with the RSI easing from near 70 toward the mid-50s. From a trading perspective, buying near $4,570 may open the way toward $4,690, with a protective stop below $4,520.
Silver Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
Silver (XAG/USD) is trading around $89.10 after a sharp pullback from the $93.35 high, where prices briefly tested the upper boundary of a rising channel and encountered strong resistance.
Recent candles show a clear bearish rejection followed by smaller-bodied candles, indicating stabilisation near current levels. Despite the pullback, silver remains within its upward channel, suggesting the broader uptrend is intact.
Immediate support is located near $86.50, aligning with the rising lower trendline and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. The RSI has cooled from overbought territory toward 55, signalling a reset in momentum rather than structural weakness.
A potential buying opportunity may emerge near $86.50, targeting a move toward $92.50, with a stop-loss positioned below $84.80.
