Gold demand during Akshaya Tritiya, traditionally one of India’s strongest gold-buying occasions, was notably subdued this year as record-high prices discouraged jewellery purchases and reshaped consumer behaviour.
Gold futures in India, the world’s second-largest gold consumer, closed at ₹154,609 per 10 grams ($1,670) on Friday — প্রায় 63% higher than levels seen during last year’s festival. The sharp rise in prices has pushed many retail buyers away from traditional jewellery and toward gold coins and bars, which offer greater liquidity and flexibility in a volatile market.
Jewellers attempted to stimulate demand by reducing making charges, but the response remained muted. According to data from the World Gold Council, India’s jewellery demand fell 24% in 2025 compared to the previous year, while investment demand surged 17% to its highest level since 2013. This divergence highlights a structural shift in the market, where gold is increasingly viewed as a financial asset rather than purely a cultural purchase.
Market participants also note a change in buying patterns. Rather than concentrating purchases around key festivals, price-sensitive consumers are now entering the market opportunistically during price dips throughout the year. This evolution reflects both elevated price levels and a more investment-driven mindset among buyers.
In a supportive move for the physical market, the Indian government has now issued an updated list of banks authorised to import gold and silver. This decision is expected to ease recent supply disruptions caused by delays in regulatory approvals.
Gold Market Outlook: Dollar and Fed Policy Remain Key Drivers
Spot gold (XAUUSD) ended Friday at $4,831.61, gaining $40.95 or 0.85% on the session. Early momentum was driven by easing geopolitical tensions, softer oil prices, and declining inflation expectations, alongside a weaker U.S. dollar and lower Treasury yields.
However, a late-session rebound in the U.S. dollar capped gains, reinforcing a key theme in the current market: gold remains highly sensitive to currency movements and expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policy.
The broader backdrop remains supportive but uneven. Futures activity is increasing and investor interest in bullion is steady, yet physical demand across Asia remains mixed. Import delays in India could tighten near-term supply, providing a floor under prices, though not a strong catalyst for a breakout.
Technical Levels to Watch
From a technical perspective, gold is trading within a critical range:
- Spot close: $4,831.61
- Short-term resistance: $4,897.88 (50-day moving average)
- Key retracement zone: $4,850.68 – $5,028.04
- Long-term support: $4,210.83 (200-day moving average)
A sustained break above the 50-day moving average could open the path toward $5,028 and potentially trigger a move toward major tops at $5,238 and $5,419.
On the downside, failure to clear resistance would signal continued selling pressure, with prices likely to remain range-bound between $4,831 and $4,744. A break below this range could accelerate further declines.
FirstGold Take
The muted response during Akshaya Tritiya sends a clear signal: high prices are reshaping traditional gold demand, particularly in key markets like India. While investment demand remains strong, the absence of robust physical buying at these levels suggests that gold’s next major move will depend less on seasonal demand and more on macro drivers — especially the direction of the U.S. dollar, inflation trends, and central bank policy.
For now, gold holds firm — but conviction for the next leg higher will require the right alignment of global forces.
