JPMorgan Chase has lowered its 2026 gold price forecast, citing weaker short term investor demand and subdued market participation, although the bank continues to maintain a strong long term bullish outlook for the precious metal.
The bank now expects gold to average around US$5,243 per ounce in 2026, down from its previous estimate of US$5,708 per ounce. Despite the downgrade, JPMorgan still believes gold could move toward the US$6,000 level by year end as broader macroeconomic risks continue to support the long term investment case for bullion.
According to analysts led by Gregory Shearer, gold is currently trading within a relatively tight technical range between its 200 day moving average near US$4,340 per ounce and its 50 day moving average around US$4,730 per ounce. Futures market activity and ETF inflows have also remained subdued in recent months.
JPMorgan stated that many investors have temporarily shifted gold “to the back burner” amid concerns that persistent energy driven inflation could force the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for longer.
However, the bank stressed that the recent softness in gold prices does not represent a structural change in the broader bull market. Instead, analysts described the current environment as a pause in momentum while markets wait for greater clarity surrounding geopolitical developments, particularly tensions involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.
The bank’s analysts believe that a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could ease inflation pressures, weaken the US dollar and reduce real bond yields, conditions that have historically been supportive for gold prices. Under this scenario, JPMorgan expects gold to retest resistance levels between US$4,900 and US$5,100 per ounce.
JPMorgan also expects investors who previously reduced exposure to gold to gradually return during the second half of the year, helping support renewed demand for bullion.
The bank reduced its forecast for central bank gold purchases in 2026 to 640 tonnes from 800 tonnes previously, following weaker officially reported buying during the first quarter. Despite this, estimates from the World Gold Council and Metals Focus suggest total central bank demand remains significantly stronger once unreported purchases are included.
ETF demand forecasts were also revised lower, with JPMorgan now expecting around 400 tonnes of inflows this year compared with an earlier forecast of 580 tonnes. Even so, global gold ETF holdings have still increased by more than 100 tonnes since the beginning of the year.
Meanwhile, broader market attention remains focused on ongoing US Iran negotiations, geopolitical tensions and the future direction of Federal Reserve policy.
Analysts expect gold prices to remain largely range bound in the near term as investors monitor developments in the Middle East, upcoming US economic data and inflation readings. Silver, however, continues to show relative strength amid elevated geopolitical uncertainty and ongoing volatility in energy markets.
Recent market volatility has also been influenced by sharp swings in oil prices and continued uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategically important shipping routes for global energy supplies.
Despite the current consolidation phase, the long term drivers supporting gold, including rising global debt levels, currency debasement concerns, geopolitical fragmentation and ongoing central bank accumulation, continue to underpin the broader bullish outlook for precious metals.
