Gold continues to demonstrate resilience, holding firm around the $4,800 per ounce level, even as short-term pressures weigh on sentiment.
According to Standard Chartered, the precious metal may face near-term headwinds but the broader trend still points higher as we move into the second half of the year.
In its latest outlook, the bank suggests gold is in the process of forming a base, with prices expected to average approximately $4,605 in Q2 before strengthening toward $4,850 in Q3.
This reinforces the view that current price consolidation is not a reversal but a pause within a longer-term bull market.
Much of the near-term uncertainty is being driven by geopolitical and macroeconomic crosscurrents.
Ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, continue to disrupt global supply chains, while fragile ceasefire conditions add another layer of unpredictability.
At the same time, shifting focus toward real yields has temporarily diverted attention away from gold’s traditional safe-haven appeal.
Inflation dynamics are also playing a critical role. Gold has recently shown a stronger inverse correlation to real yields, reflecting a market that is still grappling with the balance between persistent inflation risks and slowing economic growth.
Historically, gold performs strongly during periods of elevated inflation and recessionary pressure conditions that are quietly building beneath the surface.
Despite this, the market has yet to fully price in these risks.
From a structural standpoint, the foundations for higher gold prices remain firmly in place.
Investor demand is beginning to recover, with early signs of renewed inflows into gold-backed ETFs. At the same time, speculative positioning has eased, removing excess froth from the market and creating a healthier base for the next leg higher.
While liquidity-driven selling and cautious sentiment may continue to cap prices in the short term, the bigger picture remains unchanged.
Gold is not weakening it is consolidating.
And as history has repeatedly shown, periods of consolidation at elevated levels often precede the next major move higher.
