Skip to content Skip to footer

Gold price climbs to top end of a multi-day-old range, looks to FOMC minutes for fresh impetus

Gold price (XAU/USD) catches fresh bids during the Asian session on Wednesday and looks to build on the previous day’s rebound from the $2,319-2,318 support zone. The commodity is currently placed near the top end of a short-term trading range held over the past week or so, with bulls awaiting a sustained move beyond the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) pivotal resistance before placing fresh bets. Bets that the US central bank will begin its rate-cutting cycle at the September meeting were reaffirmed by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish-sounding remarks on Tuesday. Apart from this, concerns over a slowdown in global economic growth, persistent geopolitical tensions, along with political uncertainty in the US and Europe, act as a tailwind for the precious metal.

The upside for the Gold price, however, seems limited as traders might refrain from placing aggressive bets and prefer to wait for more cues about the Fed’s future policy decisions. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, due later during the US session, which will influence the near-term US Dollar (USD) price dynamics and provide a fresh directional impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal. In the meantime, traders will take cues from the US economic docket – featuring the ADP report on private-sector employment and the ISM Services PMI. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAU/USD is to the upside and any meaningful corrective slide could be seen as a buying opportunity.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price benefits from Fed Chair Powell’s dovish remarks on Tuesday
Investors opt to wait on the sidelines and seek more clarity about the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut path, leading to subdued range-bound price action around the Gold price for the fourth straight day on Wednesday.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed satisfaction with the progress on inflation but said that he wants to be more confident that it is moving sustainably down toward 2% before starting the process of reducing rates.
The markets are currently pricing in a greater chance that the Fed will lower borrowing costs in September and the possibility of another rate cut in December, triggering a pullback in the US Treasury bond yields.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond retreats further from a one-month high touched on Monday, which keeps the US Dollar bulls on the defensive and acts as a tailwind for the commodity.
This overshadowed the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report that showed US job openings rose to 8.140 million on the last day of May from April’s downwardly revised figure of 7.092 million.
Expectations that a Trump presidency would lead to higher tariffs, and government borrowing and be more inflationary than the Biden administration should limit the downside for the US bond yields, in turn, the USD.
Investors now look forward to the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, due later today, for some meaningful impetus ahead of the closely-watched US monthly employment details, or the NFP report on Friday.
Wednesday’s US economic docket also highlights the release of the ADP report on private-sector employment and ISM Services PMI, which might influence the USD and produce short-term opportunities around the metal.
Technical Analysis: Gold price could test $2,368-$2,370 area once 50-day SMA resistance is cleared decisively
From a technical perspective, the recent range-bound price action points to indecision among traders over the near-term trajectory. Moreover, neutral oscillators on the daily chart further warrant caution before placing aggressive directional bets. Meanwhile, the 50-day SMA, currently pegged near the $2,340 area, might continue to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the late June swing high, around the $2,365-2,370 region. Some follow-through buying should allow bulls to reclaim the $2,400 round-figure mark and aim towards challenging the all-time peak, around the $2,450 area touched in May.

On the flip side, the $2,319-2,318 area now seems to have emerged as immediate strong support ahead of the $2,300 mark and the $2,285 horizontal zone. A convincing break below the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and make the Gold price vulnerable to accelerate the fall further towards the 100-day SMA, currently near the $2,258 region. The metal could extend the downward trajectory further towards the $2,225-2,220 region before eventually dropping to the $2,200 round-figure mark.

Source: Fxstreet