Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 to $4,900 per ounce, up from its previous projection of $4,300, citing strong institutional demand, record central bank purchases, and increasing inflows into gold-backed index funds across Western markets.
The bank said it continues to see upside potential for gold, noting that a broad shift toward portfolio diversification could drive even greater demand:
“We see the risks to our updated gold price forecast still leaning toward the upside, as diversification of investment portfolios in the private sector into the relatively small gold market could push index fund holdings above our current estimates,” Goldman stated.
Gold has already surged 51% year-to-date, driven by a combination of central bank accumulation, a weaker US dollar, growing demand from ETFs, and heightened geopolitical and trade tensions prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets.
Goldman projects average central bank purchases of 80 tonnes in 2025 and 70 tonnes in 2026, with emerging market banks expected to continue diversifying reserves toward gold as part of a long-term structural shift.
The bank also anticipates a 100-basis-point cut in US interest rates by mid-2026, a move that would further support gold prices by reducing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal.
Goldman added that while speculative trading has remained stable, Western index fund holdings have strengthened in line with expectations based on US interest rate trends — suggesting that the latest surge in gold demand remains fundamentally supported, not speculative.
With central banks, institutional investors, and private portfolios all expanding their exposure, Goldman Sachs sees gold entering a new phase of sustained strength, potentially setting the stage for another record-breaking run toward $4,900 per ounce.
