Gold and silver prices moved sharply higher again in early US trading on Monday, underpinned by renewed safe-haven demand following the weekend US raid in Venezuela. While equity and broader financial markets have largely brushed off the event, precious metals traders appear far more alert to the geopolitical implications now unfolding.
February gold futures were last up $20.80 at $4,472.70, while March silver climbed $1.553 to $78.20. Beyond the headlines, the technical outlook for both metals has turned decisively more bullish over the past week, reinforcing the strength of the current move.
There is a long-standing market saying that bond traders are the smartest participants in the room. Yet in the current environment, it is precious metals traders who appear to be looking furthest ahead. While global stock markets continue to grind higher—some even reaching record levels—gold and silver traders are clearly pricing in rising geopolitical uncertainty rather than short-term calm.
The US intervention in Venezuela may prove to be only the opening move in a broader shift in US foreign policy across the Western Hemisphere. President Trump has warned other Central and South American nations over illicit drug flows and has signalled a renewed US push to reassert regional influence. At the same time, Washington’s strategic ambitions—from Greenland to the Middle East—are adding layers of global tension.
China and Russia have criticised the Venezuela operation, while Beijing may view the current moment as an opportunity to advance its long-term objectives in Taiwan. Iran, already destabilised following major US–Israeli air strikes last year, continues to experience growing civil unrest. Russia, meanwhile, remains economically strained, with geopolitical leverage increasingly reliant on its ageing nuclear arsenal.
Taken together, these developments are more than sufficient to sustain ongoing safe-haven demand for gold and silver—regardless of the resilience currently shown by equity markets.
Key Overnight Developments
US takes control of Venezuelan reform process
President Trump has appointed Secretary of State Marco Rubio to oversee economic and political reforms in Venezuela following the capture of dictator Nicolás Maduro. The White House has stated it is receiving full cooperation from the Venezuelan government, with the US expected to manage the transition until new elections are held. Senior officials, including Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and Vice President JD Vance, are also expected to play key roles. Trump added that major oil producers are prepared to invest billions to unlock Venezuela’s crude oil reserves.
Signs of a global oil glut intensify
Crude markets continue to show signs of oversupply. The discount of Dubai crude to Brent widened to its largest level since August, highlighting ample supply. Brent futures fell 18% last year, the worst annual performance since 2020. While Venezuela’s oil output could eventually increase, analysts caution that ageing infrastructure will require billions in investment and years of sustained spending to stabilise production.
Global equities continue to rally
Asian markets are enjoying their strongest start to a year on record, with several indices at all-time highs. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is up around 4% in the first four trading sessions of 2026. European markets are also firm, with the STOXX 600 and Germany’s DAX reaching fresh highs, while the UK’s FTSE 100 has pushed decisively above the 10,000 mark.
Copper surges to record levels
Copper futures climbed above $6 per pound, hitting a new all-time high amid expectations of tighter global supply. Concerns around potential US tariffs on refined metals, combined with strong demand from renewable energy, power infrastructure and data centres, continue to support prices.
Key Outside Markets
US dollar index: firmer
Crude oil: around $58.50 per barrel
US 10-year Treasury yield: 4.18%
Technical Outlook
Gold (February futures)
Bulls’ next upside objective: a close above $4,584 (contract high)
Key resistance: $4,486, then $4,500
Key support: $4,437, then $4,400
Wyckoff Market Rating: 7.5
Silver (March futures)
Bulls’ next upside objective: a close above $82.67 (record high)
Key resistance: $79.29, then $80.00
Key support: $75.70, then $75.00
Final Thought
While equities remain buoyant, gold and silver are sending a clear message. Markets may appear calm on the surface, but precious metals continue to price in a far more uncertain global outlook—one that increasingly favours hard assets as strategic protection.
